Counterfactual Reasoning, Black Swans, and Common Planning Conundrums

There are many nuts-and-bolts topics discussed (which is probably why you are here) in the name of counterfactual thinking and black swans.  All interesting, but you may by here for only one, so scroll down to what interest you.  In order, the topics are: Introduction, Configuration, Schedule, Placement, Last Thoughts.  Enjoy. Counterfactual Reasoning and Black...

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The Follow Up: Interventions Often Need Interventions

There is no silver bullet.  Change requires tweaking and digging until you get to the bone.  Be ready; it's hard work. Last week I wrote some idea of looking at data, in part use counterfactual questions.  In a counterfactual assessment you prove what is wrong, because it is easier than proving what is right.  For...

Counterfactual Questioning of Data and Needs

I have been reading Nassim Nicholas Taleb's The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable after reading a Wikipedia article about Stephen Bannon and his influences.  This was one, and it made the news clearer in many ways. It also showed me a different way of using the data we are now getting almost too...